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Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility; Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization

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  • Elena Dumitrescu
  • Rabah Arezki
  • Andreas Freytag
  • Marc G Quintyn

Abstract

We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of speculative (short-run) inflows that South Africa has been coping with since the opening up of its capital account.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Dumitrescu & Rabah Arezki & Andreas Freytag & Marc G Quintyn, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility; Lessons from South Africa’s Capital Account Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 12/168, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/168
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    Cited by:

    1. Stan Du Plessis & Monique Brigitte Reid, 2015. "The Exchange Rate Dimension of Inflation Targeting: Target Levels and Currency Volatility," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 174-179, June.
    2. Nasha Maveé & Roberto Perrelli & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2016. "Surprise, Surprise; What Drives the Rand / U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 16/205, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kebalo, Leleng, 2016. "South african exchange rate after 2000s: an econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 72440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "Exchange volatility and trade performance in Morocco and Tunisia: what have we learned so far?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 244-274, November.
    5. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and export performance: what meta-analysis reveals?," MPRA Paper 49249, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2013.
    7. Léleng KEBALO, 2016. "What DCC-GARCH model tell us about the effect of the gold price’s volatility on south african exchange rate?," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 570-582, December.
    8. Adibi, Nabiollah & Ataee-pour, Majid, 2015. "Decreasing minerals׳ revenue risk by diversification of mineral production in mineral rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 121-129.
    9. Duncan, Andrew S. & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Domestic and foreign sources of volatility spillover to South African asset classes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 566-573.
    10. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:168-182 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Commodities; Commodity price fluctuations; Capital account liberalization; Gold prices; Exchange rate; volatility; financial flows; reer; real exchange rate; exchange rate volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General

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