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RMB Internationalization; O+L5022nshore/Offshore Links

  • Samar Maziad
  • Joong Shik Kang
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    Among emerging market currencies, the RMB holds the most potential to become widely used internationally, due to China‘s large economic size, diversified trade structure and network, macroeconomic stability, and high growth rates - both current and expected. Yet, foreign access to RMB-denominated assets that could act as global stores of value remains limited due to extensive restrictions on capitals flows. At the same time, the rapid expansion of RMB trade settlement and issuance of RMB-denominated bonds by the Chinese government and corporates in Hong Kong, SAR have created some feedback channels across onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) RMB markets. We employed a bivariate GARCH model to understand the inter-linkages between onshore and offshore markets and found that, while developments in the onshore spot market exert an influence on the offshore spot market, offshore forward rates have a predictive impact on onshore forward rates. We also find evidence of volatility spillovers between two markets. Overtime, those spillover channels would be expected to grow as the offshore market further develops.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/133.

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    Length: 36
    Date of creation: 01 May 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/133
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    1. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2006. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4hz4n9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Hans Genberg, 2009. "Currency Internationalisation: Analytical and Policy Issues," Working Papers 312009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Takatoshi Ito & Satoshi Koibuchi & Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu, 2010. "Why has the yen failed to become a dominant invoicing currency in Asia? A firm-level analysis of Japanese Exporters' invoicing behavior," NBER Working Papers 16231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Marc Flandreau, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When Did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading International Currency?," NBER Working Papers 14154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert McCauley, 2011. "Renminbi internationalisation and China's financial development," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    7. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
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