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Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies

  • Luis-Felipe Zanna
  • Marco Airaudo

We present an extensive analysis of the consequences for global equilibrium determinacy in flexible-price open economies of implementing active interest rate rules, i.e., monetary rules where the nominal interest rate responds more than proportionally to inflation. We show that conditions under which these rules generate aggregate instability by inducing liquidity traps, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics depend on specific characteristics of open economies. In particular, rules that respond to expected future inflation are more prone to induce endogenous cyclical and chaotic dynamics the more open the economy to trade.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/121.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/121
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  1. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Open Economy," Discussion Papers 0203, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  2. Ragna Alstadheim & Dale Henderson, 2006. "Price-level determinacy, lower bounds on the nominal interest rate, and liquidity traps," Working Paper 2006/03, Norges Bank.
  3. Evans, G.W. & Guse, E. & Honkapohja, S, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0732, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2008. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S34-S47, October.
  5. Luis-Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2008. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1033-1063, 08.
  6. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
  7. Bask, Mikael, 2000. "A Positive Lyapunov Exponent in Swedish Exchange Rates?," Umeå Economic Studies 528, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  8. Diks, C.G.H. & Hommes, C.H. & Panchenko, V. & Weide, R. van der, 2006. "E&F Chaos: a user friendly software package for nonlinear economic dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  9. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
  10. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2004. "The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance," Economics wp23_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  11. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2000. "Purchasing power parity, nonlinearity and chaos," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 615-622.
  13. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  14. Weder, Mark, 1999. "Indeterminacy in the small open economy Ramsey growth model," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,30, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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