IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies

Listed author(s):
  • Luis-Felipe Zanna
  • Marco Airaudo

We present an extensive analysis of the consequences for global equilibrium determinacy in flexible-price open economies of implementing active interest rate rules, i.e., monetary rules where the nominal interest rate responds more than proportionally to inflation. We show that conditions under which these rules generate aggregate instability by inducing liquidity traps, endogenous cycles, and chaotic dynamics depend on specific characteristics of open economies. In particular, rules that respond to expected future inflation are more prone to induce endogenous cyclical and chaotic dynamics the more open the economy to trade.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25908
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/121.

as
in new window

Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 May 2012
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/121
Contact details of provider: Postal:
International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA

Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2002. "Chaotic Interest-Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 72-78, May.
  2. Alstadheim Ragna & Henderson Dale W., 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, November.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 248-252, May.
  4. repec:rus:hseeco:122794 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
  9. Frankel, Jeffrey & Parsley, David & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp05-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Valentyn Panchenko & Roy Weide, 2008. "E&F Chaos: A User Friendly Software Package for Nonlinear Economic Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 221-244, September.
  14. Vittorio Corbo, 2002. "Monetary Policy in Latin America in the 90s," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 6, pages 117-166 Central Bank of Chile.
  15. George W. Evans & Eran Guse & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Liquidity Traps, Learning and Stagnation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2007-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 05 Jun 2007.
  16. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  17. Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao & Ostry, Jonathan, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," MPRA Paper 6978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Marco Airaudo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Interest Rate Rules, Endogenous Cycles, and Chaotic Dynamics in Open Economies," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 171, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  19. Bernal Raquel, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in Colombia," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, March.
  20. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Monetary policy and multiple equilibria," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Campbell Leith & Simon Wren-Lewis, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Open Economy," Working Papers 2002_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  22. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1988. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of Monetary Economy," Discussion Papers 825, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  23. Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Determinacy and Learnability of Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies," Research Department Publications 4479, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  24. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  25. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2006. "Pass-through of exchange rates to consumption prices: what has changed and why," Staff Reports 261, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. Galí, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3346, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  28. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Fabio Ghironi, 2002. "Does It Matter (for Equilibrium Determinacy) What Price Index the Central Bank Targets?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 533, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 07 Feb 2003.
  29. Bullard, James & Singh, Aarti, 2008. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 34-47, October.
  30. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations," NBER Working Papers 7862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. James B. Bullard, 2010. "Seven faces of "the peril"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 339-352.
  33. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
  35. Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Comparing forecast-based and backward-looking Taylor rules: a "global" analysis," Staff Reports 198, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  36. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
  37. Thorarinn G. Petursson, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and its Effects on Macroeconomic Performance," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  38. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy with Noncontingent Debt and the Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131.
  39. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2000. "Purchasing power parity, nonlinearity and chaos," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 615-622.
  41. Qinglai Meng & Andrés Velasco, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 22(3), pages 661-669, October.
  42. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
  43. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2004. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-based rules in a two-bloc model," International Finance Discussion Papers 797, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Eusepi, Stefano, 2007. "Learnability and monetary policy: A global perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1115-1131, May.
  45. Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1999. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 99-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  46. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in the Open Economy: Effects on Welfare and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 3279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  48. Samuel Bentolila & Gilles Saint Paul, 1999. "Explaining movements in the labor share," Economics Working Papers 374, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  49. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Exchange rate determination under interest rate rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 971-993, October.
  50. Weder, Mark, 1999. "Indeterminacy in the small open economy Ramsey growth model," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,30, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  51. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2004. "The effects of inflation targeting on macroeconomic performance," Economics wp23_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  52. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Bask, Mikael, 2000. "A Positive Lyapunov Exponent in Swedish Exchange Rates?," Umeå Economic Studies 528, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  54. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1993. "The emergence of equilibrium cycles in a monetary economy with a separable utility function," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 321-334, November.
  55. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1997. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Eliminating Nonconvergent Dynamic Paths," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 249-261, February.
  56. Holman, Jill A, 1998. "GMM Estimation of a Money-in-the-Utility-Function Model: The Implications of Functional Forms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 679-698, November.
  57. Boldrin, Michele & Nishimura, Kazuo & Shigoka, Tadashi & Yano, Makoto, 2001. "Chaotic Equilibrium Dynamics in Endogenous Growth Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 97-132, January.
  58. Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2003. "Interest rate rules and multiple equilibria in the small open economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 785, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  59. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)

or (Hassan Zaidi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.