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Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India

Listed author(s):
  • Muneesh Kapur
  • Michael Debabrata Patra

This paper empirically evaluates the operational performance of the McCallum rule, the Taylor rule and hybrid rules in India over the period 1996-2011 using quarterly data, with a view to analytically informing the conduct of monetary policy. The results show that forward-looking formulations of both rules and their hybrid version - setting a nominal output growth objective for monetary policy with an interest rate instrument - outperform contemporaneous and backward-looking specifications, especially when targeting core components of GDP and inflation, and combine the best parts of efficiency and discretion.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/118.

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Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 May 2012
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/118
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  1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
  2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Seminar Papers 644, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  4. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Michael Debabrata Patra & Muneesh Kapur, 2012. "A monetary policy model for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 18-41, March.
  9. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Working Paper 00-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  10. Raghbendra Jha, 2008. "Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 259-270.
  11. W A Razzak, 2001. "Is the Taylor rule really different from the McCallum rule?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  12. John B. Carlson, 1988. "Rules versus discretion: making a monetary rule operational," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 2-13.
  13. Haslag, Joseph H., 1993. "Does it matter how monetary policy is implemented?," Working Papers 9310, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  14. Hutchison, Michael & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "Estimating a monetary policy rule for India," MPRA Paper 38924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Sitikantha Pattanaik & G.V. Nadhanael, 2013. "Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 204-220, September.
  16. Meade, James E, 1978. "The Meaning of "Internal Balance"," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 423-435, September.
  17. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
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