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Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India

  • Muneesh Kapur
  • Michael Debabrata Patra
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    This paper empirically evaluates the operational performance of the McCallum rule, the Taylor rule and hybrid rules in India over the period 1996-2011 using quarterly data, with a view to analytically informing the conduct of monetary policy. The results show that forward-looking formulations of both rules and their hybrid version - setting a nominal output growth objective for monetary policy with an interest rate instrument - outperform contemporaneous and backward-looking specifications, especially when targeting core components of GDP and inflation, and combine the best parts of efficiency and discretion.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 12/118.

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    Length: 44
    Date of creation: 01 May 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/118
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    1. Raghbendra Jha, 2005. "Inflation Targeting in India: Issues and Prospects," ASARC Working Papers 2005-04, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    2. Haslag, Joseph H. & Hein, Scott E., 1995. "Does it matter how monetary policy is implemented?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 359-386, April.
    3. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December.
    5. Sitikantha Pattanaik & G.V. Nadhanael, 2013. "Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 204-220, September.
    6. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Seminar Papers 644, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    8. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    9. W A Razzak, 2001. "Is the Taylor rule really different from the McCallum rule?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Meade, James E, 1978. "The Meaning of "Internal Balance"," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 423-35, September.
    11. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2009. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
    13. Hutchison, Michael & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "Estimating a Monetary Policy Rule for India," MPRA Paper 21106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
    15. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. John B. Carlson, 1988. "Rules versus discretion: making a monetary rule operational," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 2-13.
    17. Mehrotra, Aaron & Koivu, Tuuli & Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2008. "McCallum rule and Chinese monetary policy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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