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Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India

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  • Muneesh Kapur
  • Michael Debabrata Patra

Abstract

This paper empirically evaluates the operational performance of the McCallum rule, the Taylor rule and hybrid rules in India over the period 1996-2011 using quarterly data, with a view to analytically informing the conduct of monetary policy. The results show that forward-looking formulations of both rules and their hybrid version - setting a nominal output growth objective for monetary policy with an interest rate instrument - outperform contemporaneous and backward-looking specifications, especially when targeting core components of GDP and inflation, and combine the best parts of efficiency and discretion.

Suggested Citation

  • Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 12/118, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. W. A. Razzak, 2003. "Is the Taylor Rule Really Different from the McCallum Rule?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 445-457, October.
    3. Hutchison, Michael & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "Estimating a Monetary Policy Rule for India," MPRA Paper 21106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    7. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Raghbendra Jha, 2008. "Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 259-270.
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    10. Mehrotra, Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Assessing McCallum and Taylor rules in a cross-section of emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 207-228, April.
    11. Sitikantha Pattanaik & G.V. Nadhanael, 2013. "Why persistent high inflation impedes growth? An empirical assessment of threshold level of inflation for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 204-220, September.
    12. Haslag, Joseph H. & Hein, Scott E., 1995. "Does it matter how monetary policy is implemented?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 359-386, April.
    13. Michael Debabrata Patra & Muneesh Kapur, 2012. "A monetary policy model for India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 18-41, March.
    14. Marvin Goodfriend, 2000. "Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 1007-1057.
    15. Meade, James E, 1993. "The Meaning of "Internal Balance."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(6), pages 3-9, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pranjul Bhandari & Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India," CID Working Papers 284, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Nuutilainen, Riikka, 2015. "Contemporary monetary policy in China: A move towards price-based policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Onanuga, Abayomi & Oshinloye, Michael & Onanuga, Olaronke, 2015. "Monetary Policy-Making in Nigeria: Does evidence support augmented Taylor Rule?," MPRA Paper 83329, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503181119 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Pankaj Kumar & Naveen Srinivasan, 2014. "Unravelling India’s Inflation Puzzle," Working Papers 2014-085, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    6. Hutchison, Michael M. & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2013. "Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-202.
    7. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:491-506 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Financial Stability in a LIC; The Case of Bangladesh," IMF Working Papers 15/231, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik,Ila, 2014. "Monetary policy analysis in an inflation targeting framework in emerging economies: The case of India," Working Papers 14/131, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    10. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:32-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Gupta,Poonam - DECOS, 2016. "Capital flows and central banking : the Indian experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7569, The World Bank.
    12. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2014. "Inflation and China's monetary policy reaction function: 2002-2013," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 159-170 Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Kumawat, Lokendra & Bhanumurthy, N. R., 2016. "Regime Shifts in India's Monetary Policy Response Function," Working Papers 16/177, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    14. Bhandari, Pranjul & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting for developing countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 491-506.
    15. Lokendra Kumawat & N R Bhanumurthy, 2016. "Regime Shifts in India’s Monetary Policy Response Function," Working Papers id:11400, eSocialSciences.
    16. repec:bla:sajeco:v:85:y:2017:i:1:p:28-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Eric Girardin & Sandrine Lunven & Guonan Ma, 2017. "China's evolving monetary policy rule: from inflation-accommodating to anti-inflation policy," BIS Working Papers 641, Bank for International Settlements.

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