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China's Impacton World Commodity Markets


  • Shaun K. Roache


Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting inventory demand) have no effect on commodity prices. China’s impact on world commodity markets is rising but, perhaps surprisingly, remains smaller than that of the United States. This is mainly due to the dynamics of real activity growth shocks in the U.S, which tend to be more persistent and have larger effects on the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun K. Roache, 2012. "China's Impacton World Commodity Markets," IMF Working Papers 12/115, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/115

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chhibber, Ajay, 2015. "China's One Belt One Road Strategy: The New Financial Institutions and India's Options," Working Papers 15/155, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 164-175.
    3. Osborn, Denise R. & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "Growth in China and the US: Effects on a small commodity exporter economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-277.
    4. Klotz, Philipp & Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2014. "Global commodity prices, economic activity and monetary policy: The relevance of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-9.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry-McKibbin & Verity Linehan, 2014. "Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 167-178, January.
    6. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    8. Bertrand Gruss, 2014. "After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 14/154, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Ajay Chhibber, "undated". "China's One Belt One Road Strategy: The New Financial Institutions and India’s Options," Working Papers 2017-7, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    10. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes, 2016. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Working Papers 2016-80, Peruvian Economic Association.
    11. Mardi Dungey & Marius Matei & Matteo Luciani & David Veredas, 2017. "Surfing through the GFC: Systemic Risk in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.
    13. Boureima Sawadogo & Tegawende Juliette Nana & Maimouna Hama Natama & Fidèle Bama & Emma Tapsoba & Kassoum Zerbo, 2015. "Impact de l'expansion économique et commerciale de la Chine sur la croissance et l'emploi au Burkina Faso: une analyse en équilibre général calculable," Working Papers MPIA 2015-03, PEP-MPIA.
    14. Eickmeier, Sandra & Kühnlenz, Markus, 2013. "China's role in global inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 07/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Philip Schellekens, 2013. "A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16115, The World Bank.
    16. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Barslund, Mikkel & Hansen, Casper Worm & Harr, Thomas & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2014. "How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-26.
    17. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    18. repec:wbk:wbpubs:28422 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Cesar Calderon & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Mapi M. Buitano & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, October 2015," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22722, The World Bank.


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