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An End to China’s Imbalances?

Author

Listed:
  • Ashvin Ahuja
  • Nigel A Chalk
  • Nathan Porter
  • Papa M N'Diaye
  • Malhar S Nabar

Abstract

Global imbalances have been a central theme of the international economic policy debate for much of the last decade, prompted by large and sustained current account deficits in the U.S. and counterpart surpluses in China, Germany, and among many of the oil producers. This paper focuses on the current state of the external imbalance in China, examining the factors underlying the post-2008 drop in China’s current account surplus and analyzing the prospects for the external surplus going forward. The paper finds that China’s current account surplus should remain modest in the coming years. However, despite the fact that China’s medium-term current account is likely to stay below its pre-crisis range, it is too early to conclude that "rebalancing" has been truly achieved in China. While imbalances do not currently seem to be manifesting themselves as a feature of China’s external accounts, the evidence increasingly points to a rising domestic imbalance as growth becomes increasingly dependent on very high levels of investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashvin Ahuja & Nigel A Chalk & Nathan Porter & Papa M N'Diaye & Malhar S Nabar, 2012. "An End to China’s Imbalances?," IMF Working Papers 12/100, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    3. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk V Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) – Theoretical Structure," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jaewoo, 2015. "Imbalances over the Pacific," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 173-185.
    2. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Aggregated and disaggregated import demand in China: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    3. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thorbecke, Willem, 2016. "Understanding Chinese consumption goods imports," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 96-102.
    5. Ming Zhang & Xiaofen Tan, 2015. "Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 101-120, January.
    6. Dmitriy Izotov, 2013. "Zones with China's concessional regime: spatial concentration and foreign trade contribution," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 123-132.
    7. repec:eee:rujoec:v:2:y:2016:i:3:p:279-301 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate appreciation; China; Current account; Current account balances; Global imbalances; Terms of trade; current account surplus; current account balance; trading partners;

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