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Identifying the Linkages between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America

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  • Yongzhen Yu

Abstract

Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical. High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade. The urbanization and industrialization of China has been an important factor behind the increase in domestic demand and high investment growth, while its export sector is also an important source of growth and plays a critical role as a catalyst. Activity in infrastructure, construction, real estate, and automobile manufacturing all contribute to the strong demand for minerals. Over the next five years, the Chinese demand is expected to remain strong, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates. However, in the second part of this decade economic growth in China could slow down. For Latin American countries, export receipts should remain strong over the next five years and beyond, given the continued strong demand from China.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongzhen Yu, 2011. "Identifying the Linkages between Major Mining Commodity Prices and China’s Economic Growth—Implications for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 11/86, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/86
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    Cited by:

    1. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Cesar Calderon & Luc Christiaensen & David Evans & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota & Mapi Buitano, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, April 2015," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21736, The World Bank.
    2. Jaroslava Durčáková & Ondřej Šíma, 2013. "BRICS: Exchange Rate policy in Context of Internal and External Equilibrium," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(4), pages 7-29.
    3. Vianna, Andre C., 2016. "The impact of exports to China on Latin American growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 58-66.
    4. Philip Schellekens, 2013. "A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 16115, The World Bank.
    5. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes, 2016. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Working Papers 2016-80, Peruvian Economic Association.
    6. Paulo Drummond & Estelle Liu, 2015. "Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(3), pages 317-334, August.

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