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Mongolia; Measuring the Output Gap

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Bersch
  • Tara M. Sinclair

Abstract

This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia; Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 11/79, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/79
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 10/197, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    3. Ebrima A Faal, 2005. "GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 05/93, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
    5. Leandro Medina & Nicolas E Magud, 2011. "The Chilean Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 11/2, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.

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