Reviving the Competitive Storage Model; A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices
We revive in this paper the empirical relevance of the competitive storage model by taking a holistic approach to food commodity prices. We augment the seminal Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1996) model by incorporating more comprehensive and realistic supply and demand factors: output and demand trends, shocks to the yield, and time-varying interest rates. While the computational burden increases exponentially, the augmented model succeeds in replicating all four key patterns of food commodity prices. Our simulation and comparative statics also show that (i) the long-run declining trend of food prices may come to a halt or even reverse due to the shifting balance between supply and demand; (ii) short-run price fluctuations are mainly attributable to sizeable, though low-probability, shocks to output such as inclement weather; and (iii) the impact of monetary policy, though small in normal times, is nonlinear and asymmetric, and can become large if the real rate passes a certain threshold.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002.
"A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis,"
201, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 2003. "A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 289-310, August.
- Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 2002. "A Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis," Working Papers 2002-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.