How Strong Are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC? An Empirical Investigation
The effectiveness of fiscal policy in smoothing the impact of shocks depends critically on the size of fiscal multipliers. This is particularly relevant for the GCC countries given the need for fiscal policy to cushion the economy from large terms of trade shocks in the absence of an independent monetary policy and where fiscal multipliers could be weak dues to substantial leakages through remittances and imports. The paper provides estimates of the size of fiscal multipliers using a variety of models. The focus is on government spending since tax revenues are small. The long-run multiplier estimates vary in the 0.3-0.7 range for current expenditure and 0.6-1.1 for capital spending, depending on the particular specification and estimation method chosen. These estimates fall within the range of fiscal multiplier estimates in the literature for non-oil emerging markets.
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- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010.
"How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," NBER Working Papers 16479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 2011. "How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 11/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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