Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact; Evidence from Survey Data
The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market expertsâ€™ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGPâ€™s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between marketsâ€™ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 0745, European Central Bank.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2008.
"Fiscal policy in real time,"
Working Paper Series
0919, European Central Bank.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Eric M. Leeper, 2009.
"Anchoring Fiscal Expectations,"
NBER Working Papers
15269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2008. "Are they really rational? Assessing professional macro-economic forecasts from the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007.
"Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2007/39, European University Institute.
- Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1973, CESifo Group Munich.
- Xavier Debrun & David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "Independent Fiscal Agencies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 44-81, 02.
- Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010.
"The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity,"
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
- Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The Effects of Japanese Interventions on FX-Forecast Heterogeneity," MPRA Paper 15603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.