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Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact; Evidence From Survey Data

  • International Monetary Fund

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission''s and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/48.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/48
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  1. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring fiscal expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 17-42, September.
  2. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
  3. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2009. "New Evidence on the Effectiveness of Europe's Fiscal Restrictions," Working Papers 2009-13, CEPII research center.
  4. Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2008. "Are They Really Rational? Assessing Professional Macro-Economic Forecasts from the G7-Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1447, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/39, European University Institute.
  6. Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
  7. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
  8. Xavier Debrun & David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2009. "Independent Fiscal Agencies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 44-81, 02.
  9. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 0745, European Central Bank.
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