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How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul d Abiad
  • Petia Topalova
  • Prachi Mishra

Abstract

We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent, with imports recovering to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 years. In contrast, exports of the crisis country are not adversely affected, and they remain close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul d Abiad & Petia Topalova & Prachi Mishra, 2011. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Working Papers 11/3, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Konon, Alexander, 2012. "Direct and Indirect Crisis Effects on International Trade or: Is There a Chance to Employ an Income Stimulus to Stimulate Exports?," MPRA Paper 36363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Nicolas Berman & José de Sousa & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Time to Ship during Financial Crises," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 225-260.
    3. Chen, Natalie & Juvenal, Luciana, 2015. "Quality and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 231147, American Association of Wine Economists.
    4. Georgescu, George, 2012. "Impactul crizei globale asupra structurii comerţului exterior al României
      [The Global Crisis Impact on Romanian Trade Structure]
      ," MPRA Paper 36339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Katarzyna Śledziewska & Bartosz Witkowski, 2012. "Poziom rozwoju przemysłowego a wpływ kryzysu 2009 roku na handel międzynarodowy," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 27, pages 71-85.
    6. di Mauro, Filippo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Vicard, Vincent & Altomonte, Carlo & Rungi, Armando, 2012. "Global value chains during the great trade collapse: a bullwhip effect?," Working Paper Series 1412, European Central Bank.
    7. Mohamed Ben Abdallah & Zouheir Bouchaddakh, 2013. "Banking and Monetary Crises: Impacts on Exports of MENA Countries," Working Papers 786, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2013.
    8. Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2012. "Banking Crises and Short and Medium Term Output Losses in Emerging and Developing Countries: The Role of Structural and Policy Variables," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2369-2378.
    9. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Fabien Rondeau, 2015. "Trade spillovers on output growth during the 2008 financial crisis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 36-47.

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