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How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?

  • Abdul d Abiad
  • Petia Topalova
  • Prachi Mishra

We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is persistent, with imports recovering to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 years. In contrast, exports of the crisis country are not adversely affected, and they remain close to the predicted level in both the short and medium-term.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/3.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/3
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
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  3. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," CEPR Discussion Papers 7131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  9. Nicolas Berman and Philippe Martin, 2010. "The Vulnerability Of Sub-Saharan Africa To The Financial Crisis: The Case Of Trade," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 15, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  10. Logan Lewis & Linda Tesar & Andrei Levchenko, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," 2010 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  14. Yu, Miaojie, 2010. "Trade, democracy, and the gravity equation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 289-300, March.
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  18. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
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