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Inflation Differentials in the GCC; Does the Oil Cycle Matter?

Author Info

  • Oral Williams
  • Kamiar Mohaddes

Abstract

This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/294.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/294
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Keywords: Oil prices; Oil revenues; Oil sector; inflation; inflation rates; monetary fund; monetary union; price level; inflation rate; inflation process; increase in inflation; central bank; inflationary pressures; money supply; european monetary union; real output; inflation convergence; inflation dynamics;

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  13. Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Inflation Differentials between Spain and the EMU: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1141-1166, 09.
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Cited by:

  1. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
  2. Cashin, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1250, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Abbas Ali Abounoori & Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Domestic Inflation: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 662-669.
  4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "GCC Countries and the Nexus between Exchange Rate and Oil Price: What wavelet decomposition reveals?," MPRA Paper 55871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 298-317.

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