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Inflation Differentials in the GCC; Does the Oil Cycle Matter?

Author Info

  • Oral Williams
  • Kamiar Mohaddes

Abstract

This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/294.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/294
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Keywords: Oil prices; Oil revenues; Oil sector; Inflation differentials; convergence; panel data; pairwise approach; monetary union; Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.; inflation; inflation rates; monetary fund; price level;

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  1. Magda E. Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2009. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," IMF Working Papers 09/82, International Monetary Fund.
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  6. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "A Pair-wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Busetti, Fabio & Forni, Lorenzo & Harvey, Andrew & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2006. "Inflation convergence and divergence within the European Monetary Union," Working Paper Series 0574, European Central Bank.
  8. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  10. Julien Licheron, 2007. "Explaining Inflation Differentials in the Euro Area: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 112, pages 73-97.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  12. Basher, Syed Abul & Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa, 2010. "Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 27348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  14. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  15. Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Inflation Differentials between Spain and the EMU: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1141-1166, 09.
  16. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
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Cited by:

  1. Abbas Ali Abounoori & Rafik Nazarian & Ashkan Amiri, 2014. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Domestic Inflation: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 662-669.
  2. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 15/259, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 298-317.
  4. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "GCC countries and the nexus between exchange rate and oil price: What wavelet decomposition reveals?," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 55-70.
  5. Cashin, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M., 2012. "The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1250, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Cashin, P. & Mohaddes, K. & Raissi, M. & Raissi, M., 2012. "The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1249, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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