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Desynchronized; The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC

  • Serhan Cevik

This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/286.

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Length: 25
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/286
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  1. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Measuring coherence of output gaps with an application to the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 217-236, April.
  2. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, 07.
  3. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  4. Máximo Camacho & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Lorena Saiz, 2004. "Are european business cycles close enough to be just one?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0408, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott & Paul Cashin, 1999. "The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/169, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Mark Mink & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Measuring Synchronicity And Co-Movement Of Business Cycles With An Application To The Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2007-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
  9. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
  10. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Raphael A. Espinoza & Oral Williams & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Regional Financial Integration in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 10/90, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Francisco Nadal-De Simone, 2002. "Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 02/229, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0587, European Central Bank.
  14. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
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