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An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy

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  • Tigran Poghosyan
  • Samya Beidas-Strom

Abstract

This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Tigran Poghosyan & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Jordanian Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/28, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Magda E. Kandil & S. Beidas, 2005. "Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza; The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 05/70, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jesus Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2001. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium economies to data," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohaddes Kamiar & Raissi Mehdi, 2013. "Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth: Lessons from Jordan," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 99-131, August.
    2. repec:eco:journ1:2017-02-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Jordan; DSGE; Bayesian Estimation; Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; inflation; exchange rate; real exchange rate; real wages; Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models; Bayesian Analysis; Economywide Country Studies: Asia including Middle East;

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