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Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage; Are there Growth Spillovers?

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  • Issouf Samaké
  • Yongzheng Yang

Abstract

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the latter to the former. We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to investigate the extent of business cycle transmission from BRICs to LICs through both direct (FDI, trade, productivity, exchange rates) and indirect (global commodity prices, demand, and interest rates) channels. The estimation results show that there are significant direct spillovers while indirect spillovers also matters in many cases. Based on these results, we show that growing LIC-BRIC ties have significantly helped alleviate the adverse impact of the recent global financial crisis on LIC economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Issouf Samaké & Yongzheng Yang, 2011. "Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage; Are there Growth Spillovers?," IMF Working Papers 11/267, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/267
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    3. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    6. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:189-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nihal Bayraktar, 2017. "Impacts Of Africa'S Total And Commodity-Based Trade With China And Oecd Countries†," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(1), pages 95-113.
    4. Al-Najjar, Basil, 2013. "The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 77-88.
    5. ViniÌ cius de Azevedo Couto Firme & JoaniÌ lio Rodolpho Teixeira, 2014. "Index of Macroeconomic Performance for a Subset of Countries: A Kaldorian Analysis from the Magic Square Approach Focusing on Brazilian Economy in the Period 1997-2012," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(5), pages 527-542, October.

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