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Inflation Dynamics in Asia; Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China

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  • Carolina Osorio
  • Filiz D Unsal

Abstract

The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Osorio & Filiz D Unsal, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in Asia; Causes, Changes, and Spillovers From China," IMF Working Papers 11/257, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/257
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    1. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0341-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    3. Nasre Esfahani, Mohammad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2016. "Revisiting the relationships between non-renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 71124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tan, Madeleine Sui-Lay, 2016. "Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    5. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mohanty, Deepak & John, Joice, 2015. "Determinants of inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 86-96.
    7. Dridi, Jemma & Nguyen, Anh D. M., 2017. "Inflation Convergence In East African Countries," MPRA Paper 80393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hałka & Szafranek, 2016. "Whose Inflation Is It Anyway? Inflation Spillovers Between the Euro Area and Small Open Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 109-132, March.
    9. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:54:y:2016:i:2:p:109-132 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mohammad Mirbagherijam, 2014. "Survey the Dynamic of Inflation in Iran Since 1990," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(6), pages 210-224, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Inflation; Global VAR (GVAR); inflation dynamics; money supply; monetary shocks; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; International Policy Coordination and Transmission;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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