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An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States


  • Carlos I. Medeiros
  • Ying He


The paper assesses estimates of term structure models for the United States. To this end, this paper first describes the mathematics underlying two types of term structure models, namely the Nelson-Siegel and Cox, Ingersoll and Ross family of models, and the estimation techniques. It then presents estimations of some of specific models within these families of models?three-factor Nelson-Siegel Model, four-factor Svensson model, and preference-free, two-factor Cox, Ingersoll and Roll model?for the United States from 1972 to mid 2011. It subsequently provides an assessment of the estimations. It concludes that these estimations of the term structure models successfully capture the dynamics of the term structure in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos I. Medeiros & Ying He, 2011. "An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States," IMF Working Papers 11/247, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/247

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States," IMF Working Papers 10/258, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Richard Dennis & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2003. "Finance and macroeconomics," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may2.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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