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Rapid Credit Growth; Boon or Boom-Bust?

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  • Selim Elekdag
  • Yiqun Wu

Abstract

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on 99 credit booms. Loose monetary policy stances seem to have contributed to the build-up of credit booms across both advanced and emerging economies. In particular, domestic policy rates were below trend during the pre-peak phase of credit booms and likely fuelled macroeconomic and financial imbalances. For emerging economies, while credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be important drivers of real credit growth across emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2011. "Rapid Credit Growth; Boon or Boom-Bust?," IMF Working Papers 11/241, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/241
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    Cited by:

    1. Park,Haelim & Ruiz Ortega,Claudia & Tressel,Thierry, 2015. "Determinants of long-term versus short-term bank credit in EU countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7436, The World Bank.
    2. Natalie Tiernan & Pedro Gete, 2014. "Overlending and Macroprudential Tools," 2014 Meeting Papers 379, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Ravi Balakrishnan & Sylwia Nowak & Sanjaya Panth & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Surging Capital Flows To Emerging Asia: Facts, Impacts And Responses," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-24.
    4. Varlik Serdar & Berument M. Hakan, 2016. "Credit channel and capital flows: a macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 145-170, January.
    5. Elekdag, Selim & Han, Fei, 2015. "What drives credit growth in emerging Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    7. Binici, Mahir & Köksal, Bülent, 2012. "Türkiye'de Aşırı Kredi Genişlemeleri ve Belirleyicileri
      [Determinants of Credit Booms in Turkey]
      ," MPRA Paper 38032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rodrigo Lara Pinto & Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan, 2013. "Converting the NPL Ratio into a Comparable Long Term Metric," Working Papers Series 309, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Cecilia Dassatti & Alejandro Pena & Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2014. "Requerimiento de capital contra-cíclico. El caso uruguayo," Documentos de trabajo 2014008, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    10. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    11. Eduardo Borensztein & Liliana Castilleja & Daniel Hernaiz & Alejandro Rasteletti, 2012. "International Crises and Policy Responses in the Southern Cone," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4189, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, potential output and the business cycle," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 14, pages 235-264 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Adrian Alter & Selim Elekdag, 2016. "Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions," IMF Working Papers 16/243, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Gary B. Gorton, 2012. "Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 18397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Deniz Igan & Zhibo Tan, 2017. "Capital Inflows, Credit Growth, and Financial Systems," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2649-2671, December.
    16. Magud, Nicolas E. & Vesperoni, Esteban R., 2015. "Exchange rate flexibility and credit during capital inflow reversals: Purgatory … not paradise," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-110.
    17. Cecilia Dassatti & Alejandro Pena & Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Case of Uruguay," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 251-285, July-Dece.
    18. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 2017-98, Peruvian Economic Association.

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    Keywords

    Credit; Credit booms; Financial crises; boom-bust cycles; emerging Asia; capital inflows; credit boom; current account deficits; Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy; International Finance: General; Economic Growth of Open Economies;

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