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Does G-4 Liquidity Spill Over?


  • L. Effie Psalida
  • Tao Sun


The resumption of strong capital flows into emerging markets in mid-2009 brought back the debate over whether pull or push factors are the main determinants. This paper, using panel specifications with alternative measures of global liquidity, asks the question whether G-4 liquidity expansion spills over to the rest of the world. The paper finds strong positive links between G-4 liquidity expansion and asset prices, such as equities, in the liquidity receiving economies, which indicates that the push factor plays an important role in asset prices. Liquidity also has a strong positive link with the accumulation of official reserves and with equity portfolio inflows in receiving economies. Moreover, the association between excess equity returns, excess credit growth, and global liquidity has implications for rising risks to financial stability in the receiving economies.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Effie Psalida & Tao Sun, 2011. "Does G-4 Liquidity Spill Over?," IMF Working Papers 11/237, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/237

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Klaas Baks & Charles Frederick Kramer, 1999. "Global Liquidity and Asset Prices; Measurement, Implications, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 99/168, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
    3. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2010. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1933-1945, August.
    5. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 479-489, March.
    6. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro & Andre Faria & Jonathan David Ostry & Julian Di Giovanni & Martin Schindler & Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones, 2008. "Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization," IMF Occasional Papers 264, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    8. Fidora, Michael & Bracke, Thierry, 2008. "Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach," Working Paper Series 911, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brana, Sophie & Prat, Stéphanie, 2016. "The effects of global excess liquidity on emerging stock market returns: Evidence from a panel threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 26-34.
    2. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 153-166.
    3. Fonseca, Marcelo Gonçalves da Silva & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2014. "Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: a structural FAVAR approach," Textos para discussão 358, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).


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