IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/11-232.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
  • Darlena Tartari Schwegler
  • Carlos Caceres

Abstract

This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Darlena Tartari Schwegler & Carlos Caceres, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 11/232, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25280
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio C. David* & Mohamed El Harrak & Marshall Mills & Lorraine Ocampos, 2014. "Oil spill(over)s: linkages in petroleum product pricing policies in west african countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(2), pages 329-361, April-Jun.
    2. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
    3. David Coady & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro & Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies; Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Gaston K Mpatswe & Sampawende J Tapsoba & Robert C York, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Fiscal Policies in the CEMAC Region," IMF Working Papers 11/205, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    6. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    7. Alfredo Baldini & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2011. "Fiscal and Monetary Determinants of Inflation in Low-Income Countries: Theory and Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(3), pages 419-462, June.
    8. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.
    9. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Kerstin Gerling & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, 2011. "Inflation Uncertainty and Relative Price Variability in WAEMU Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/59, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    12. Tidiane Kinda, 2011. "Modeling Inflation in Chad," IMF Working Papers 11/57, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mario Mansour & Michael Keen, 2009. "Revenue Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa; Challenges from Globalization," IMF Working Papers 09/157, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anh D.M. Nguyen & Jemma Dridib & Filiz D. Unsal & Oral H. Williams, 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 71-84.
    2. Lledó, Victor & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2013. "Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 79-91.
    3. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:71-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Oulatta, Moon, 2016. "A Generic Theory of Price Determination," MPRA Paper 76014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.