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Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
  • Darlena Tartari
  • Carlos Caceres

This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/232.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/232
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  1. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  2. repec:imf:imfwpa:11/59 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
  4. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  5. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  6. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.
  7. Alfredo Baldini & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2011. "Fiscal and Monetary Determinants of Inflation in Low-Income Countries: Theory and Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(3), pages 419-462, June.
  8. repec:imf:imfwpa:11/57 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Antonio C. David* & Mohamed El Harrak & Marshall Mills & Lorraine Ocampos, 2014. "Oil spill(over)s: linkages in petroleum product pricing policies in west african countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(2), pages 329-361, April-Jun.
  10. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  11. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  12. repec:imf:imfwpa:11/205 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Mario Mansour & Michael Keen, 2009. "Revenue Mobilization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Challenges From Globalization," IMF Working Papers 09/157, International Monetary Fund.
  14. David Coady & Taimur Baig & Joseph Ntamatungiro & Amine Mati, 2007. "Domestic Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies; Recent Developments and Reform Strategies," IMF Working Papers 07/71, International Monetary Fund.
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