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How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

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  • Philippe Bracke

Abstract

This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bracke, 2011. "How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/231, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/231
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    Cited by:

    1. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    2. Hill, Robert J. & Syed, Iqbal A., 2016. "Hedonic price–rent ratios, user cost, and departures from equilibrium in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 60-72.
    3. Costanza Torricelli & Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Marco Santantonio, 2016. "Does Homeownership Partly Explain Low Participation in Supplementary Pension Schemes?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 179-203, July.
    4. David Lodge & Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2013. "How long can austerity persist? The factors that sustain fiscal consolidations," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24, June.
    5. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:215-231 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 35.
    7. Castroa, Vitor & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Duration dependence and change-points in the likelihood of credit booms ending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6475, The World Bank.
    8. R. Becker & Y. Wang, 2013. "Measuring the Chinese business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3988-4003, October.
    9. repec:taf:chosxx:v:32:y:2017:i:4:p:517-539 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robert J. Hill & Miriam Steurer & Sofie R. Waltl, 2017. "Owner Occupied Housing in the CPI and Its Impact On Monetary Policy During Housing Booms and Busts," Graz Economics Papers 2017-12, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    11. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1138-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2012. "How housing slumps end," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 647-692, October.
    13. Ott, Hervé, 2014. "Will euro area house prices sharply decrease?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-127.
    14. repec:eee:jhouse:v:38:y:2017:i:c:p:38-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sara Ferreira Filipe, 2018. "Housing prices and mortgage credit in Luxembourg," BCL working papers 117, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    16. N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 237-268, February.
    17. Aquiles Arrieta Barcasnegras, 2012. "La relación entre los flujos de capital y el precio de la vivienda: el caso colombiano," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL CARIBE 010854, UNIVERSIDAD DEL NORTE.
    18. E. Monnet & C. Wolf, 2016. "Demographic Cycle, Migration and Housing Investment: a Causal Examination," Working papers 591, Banque de France.
    19. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
    20. Augustyniak, Hanna & Łaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof & Waszczuk, Joanna, 2012. "Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny
      [Cycles on the housing and commercial real estate market, risks and the
      ," MPRA Paper 41070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2014. "Assessing House Price Effects on Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers 2014-25, CEPII research center.
    22. Horváth, Áron & Sápi, Zoltán & Révész, Gábor, 2016. "Irodapiaci ciklusok jellemzése a hozam, a bérleti forgalom, az üresedés, a bérleti díjak és az új átadás alapján
      [Yields, take-up, vacancy, rents and new supply during office-market cycles]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 113-136.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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