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Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China

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  • Malhar S Nabar

Abstract

This paper studies a panel of China's provinces over the period 1996-2009 during which urban household saving rates increased from 19 percent of disposable income to 30 percent. It finds that the increase in urban saving rates is negatively associated with the decline in real interest rates over this period. This negative association suggests that Chinese households save with a target level of saving in mind. When the return to saving declines (increases), it becomes more difficult (easier) to meet a target and households increase (lower) their saving out of current disposable income to compensate. The results are robust across specifications and to the inclusion of additional variables. A main policy implication is that an increase in real deposit rates may help lower household saving and boost domestic consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Malhar S Nabar, 2011. "Targets, Interest Rates, and Household Saving in Urban China," IMF Working Papers 11/223, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/223
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    Cited by:

    1. Xi Li & Yikai Wang & Tong Zhang, 2018. "China’s Financial System and Economic Imbalances," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2018-53, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Feb 2018.
    2. Ross Kendall, 2014. "Economic linkages between New Zealand and China," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Kevin Luo & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2018. "Do natural disasters influence long-term saving?: Assessing the impact of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake on household saving rates using synthetic control," Discussion Papers 1804, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Atella, Vincenzo & Brugiavini, Agar & Pace, Noemi, 2015. "The health care system reform in China: Effects on out-of-pocket expenses and saving," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 182-195.
    5. Dimitar Damyanov, 2016. "Real Returns, Interest Income Tax, and Household Saving in Bulgaria," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 15-23, March.
    6. Xinhua Gu & Bihong Huang & Pui Sun Tam & Yang Zhang, 2015. "Inequality and Saving: Further Evidence from Integrated Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 15-30, February.
    7. Berkelmans, Leon & Kelly, Gerard & Sadeghian, Dena, 2016. "Chinese monetary policy and the banking system," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 38-55.
    8. Bussière, Matthieu & Kalantzis, Yannick & Lafarguette, Romain & Sicular, Terry, 2013. "Understanding household savings in China: the role of the housing market and borrowing constraints," MPRA Paper 44611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2016. "The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives," NBER Working Papers 22872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Household Saving; Target Savings; Financial Liberalization; real interest rate; real interest rates; disposable income; inflation;

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