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Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery

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  • Helene Poirson Ward
  • Sebastian Weber

Abstract

Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.

Suggested Citation

  • Helene Poirson Ward & Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 11/218, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic Transmission of Eurozone Shocks to Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 131, pages 43-70.
    2. Fabian Bornhorst & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 12/239, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bornhorst, Fabian & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Test of the German resilience," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Roszkowska Paulina & Prorokowski Łukasz, 2013. "Model of Financial Crisis Contagion: A Survey-based Simulation by Means of the Modified Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, De Gruyter Open, vol. 13(1), pages 22-55, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany; Spillovers; Growth; Crisis; Recovery; Euro zone; domestic demand; trade channels; transmission of shocks; external shocks;

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