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Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery

  • International Monetary Fund

Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/218.

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Length: 50
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/218
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  1. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2006. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 47, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing the Lucas critique in monetary policy models," Working Paper Series 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 119, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  7. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Trade Spillovers of Fiscal Policy in the European Union: A Panel Analysis," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 31, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  8. Francis Vitek, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy; A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 09/238, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Down Holland & Ray Borrell & Aurélie Delonnoy & Totiono Fic & Ian Hurst & Ali Orozgoni & Pawel Paluchowski & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages F10-F17, April.
    • Down Holland & Aurélie Delonnoy & Totiono Fic & Ian Hurst & Ali Orozgoni & Powel Paluchowski & Rachel Whitworth, 2011. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages R11-R14, July.
  10. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  12. Francis Vitek, 2010. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty; A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/152, International Monetary Fund.
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