What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust; Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis
We show that the lightly regulated non-bank mortgage originators contributed disproportionately to the recent boom-bust housing cycle. Using comprehensive data on mortgage originations, which we aggregate at the county level, we first establish that the market share of these independent non-bank lenders increased in virtually all US counties during the boom. We then exploit the heterogeneity in the market share of independent lenders across counties as of 2005 and show that higher market participation by these lenders is associated with increased foreclosure filing rates at the onset of the housing downturn. We carefully control for counties' economic, demographic, and housing market characteristics using both parametric and semi-nonparametric methods. We show that this relation between the pre-crisis market share of independents and the rise in foreclosure is more pronounced in less regulated states. The macroeconomic consequences of our findings are significant: we show that the market share of these lenders as of 2005 is also a strong predictor of the severity of the housing downturn and subsequent rise in unemployment. Overall our findings lend support to the view that more stringent regulation could have averted some of the volatility on the housing market during the recent boom-bust episode.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William H. Rogers & William Winter, 2009. "The Impact of Foreclosures on Neighboring Housing Sales," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 455-480.
- Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009.
"Credit Booms and Lending Standards : Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market,"
2009-46 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards; Evidence From the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Mitchell Berlin & Loretta J. Mester, 1998.
"Deposits and relationship lending,"
98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- John Y. Campbell, 2006.
NBER Working Papers
12149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2006.
"Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 505-540, May.
- Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2005. "Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets," NBER Working Papers 11755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laibson, David I. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2006. "Shrouded Attributes, Consumer Myopia, and Information Suppression in Competitive Markets," Scholarly Articles 4554333, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean Imbs & Giovanni Favara, 2011.
"Credit Supply and the Price of Housing,"
2011 Meeting Papers
1342, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007.
"Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures,"
07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Paul S. Willen & Adam Hale Shapiro & Kristopher Gerardi, 2008. "Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences, and Foreclosures," 2008 Meeting Papers 345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bostic, Raphael W. & Engel, Kathleen C. & McCoy, Patricia A. & Pennington-Cross, Anthony & Wachter, Susan M., 2008. "State and local anti-predatory lending laws: The effect of legal enforcement mechanisms," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 47-66.
- Mark Doms & Fred Furlong & John Krainer, 2007. "Subprime mortgage delinquency rates," Working Paper Series 2007-33, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
- Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Bruno Laranjeira & Scott Weisbenner, 2009. "Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Effects of the 2007 Credit Crisis," NBER Working Papers 14990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christine A. Parlour & Guillaume Plantin, 2008. "Loan Sales and Relationship Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1291-1314, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.