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Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields

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  • Emre Alper
  • Lorenzo Forni

Abstract

Several models establish a positive association between public debt ratios and long-term real yields, but the empirical evidence is not always conclusive. We reconsider this issue, focusing in particular on possible spillover effects of large advanced economies' debt levels to other economies' borrowing yields, especially in emerging markets. We extend the existing literature by using real time expectations of fiscal and other macroeconomic variables for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. We show that an increase in the public debt levels of large advanced economies - especially the United States - spills over to both emerging markets and other advanced economies' long-term real yields and that this effect is significant at the current levels of advanced economies' debt ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni, 2011. "Public Debt in Advanced Economies and its Spillover Effectson Long-Term Yields," IMF Working Papers 11/210, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2013. "Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 735-756, October.
    2. Angeliki Papana & Catherine Kyrtsou & Dimitris Kugiumtzis & Cees Diks, 2016. "Detecting Causality in Non-stationary Time Series Using Partial Symbolic Transfer Entropy: Evidence in Financial Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 341-365, March.
    3. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Debt levels, debt composition, and sovereign spreads in emerging and advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, pages 518-547.
    4. Serkan Arslanalp & Waikei R Lam, 2013. "Outlook for Interest Rates and Japanese Banks’ Risk Exposures under Abenomics," IMF Working Papers 13/213, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
    6. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    7. Ichiue, Hibiki & Shimizu, Yuhei, 2015. "Determinants of long-term yields: A panel data analysis of major countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 44-55.
    8. Nazim Belhocine & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 13/93, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dimitris Papageorgiou, 2014. "BoGGEM: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for policy simulations," Working Papers 182, Bank of Greece.
    10. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:04:y:2013:i:01:n:s1793993313500026 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Claeys, Peter & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2014. "How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?," Working Paper Series 1750, European Central Bank.
    12. Hibiki Ichiue & Yuhei Shimizu, 2012. "Determinants of Long-term Yields: A Panel Data Analysis of Major Countries and Decomposition of Yields of Japan and the US," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    13. Lucian-Liviu Albu & Radu Lupu & Adrian Cantemir Calin, 2015. "Interactions between financial markets and macroeconomic variables in EU: a nonlinear modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa15p685, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Dell’Erba Salvatore & Sola Sergio, 2016. "Does fiscal policy affect interest rates? Evidence from a factor-augmented panel," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 395-437, June.
    15. Waikei R Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2011. "Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market," IMF Working Papers 11/292, International Monetary Fund.
    16. LUPU, Radu & CALIN, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "A Mixed Frequency Analysis Of Connections Between Macroeconomic Variables And Stock Markets In Central And Eastern Europe," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(2), pages 69-79.

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