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External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries

  • Robert C. York
  • Misa Takebe
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    In the extensive empirical work carried out across the IMF on oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the notion of "sustainability" is often directed toward fiscal policies, and, in particular, views on the "optimal" non-oil primary fiscal deficit. The bulk of this work does not, however, address external sustainability, which is a concern especially for those SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. A couple of recent papers have extended the existing methodologies to assess external sustainability for some oil-producing countries but they do not focus on those in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we bolster this empirical work by providing a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each of the SSA oil-producing countries, based on three widely used methodologies in the IMF. Our research strategy is to apply these models to the eight countries in the subregion - Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d''Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo - using similar simplifying assumptions so that we are using the same lens to view how they do and do not differ.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/207.

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    Length: 32
    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/207
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    1. Bems, Rudolfs & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "The current account and precautionary savings for exporters of exhaustible resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 48-64, May.
    2. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2009. "External Balance in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/221, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
    4. Hanan Morsy, 2009. "Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/28, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Irineu E. Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments; Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alun H. Thomas & Jun Il Kim & Aqib Aslam, 2008. "Equilibrium Non-Oil Current Account Assessments for Oil Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/198, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 0995, European Central Bank.
    8. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
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