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Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?

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  • Nese Erbil

Abstract

This paper examines the cyclicality of fiscal behavior in 28 developing oil-producing countries (OPCs) during 1990-2009. After testing five fiscal measures - government expenditure, consumption, investment, non-oil revenue, and non-oil primary balance - and correcting for reverse causality between non-oil output and fiscal variables, the results suggest that all of the five fiscal variables are strongly procyclical in the full sample. Also, the results are not uniform across income groups: expenditure is procyclical in the low and middle-income countries, while it is countercyclical in the high-income countries. Fiscal policy tends to be affected by the external financing constraints in the middle- and high-income groups. However, the quality of institutions and political structure appear to be more significant for the low-income group.

Suggested Citation

  • Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 11/171, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6089, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Delavari, Majid & Gandali Alikhani, Nadiya & Naderi, Esmaeil, 2013. "Does long memory matter in forecasting oil price volatility?," MPRA Paper 46356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Dampen the Negative Effects of Commodity Price Volatility?," Working Papers 1106, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Aug 2000.
    3. repec:eac:articl:08/15 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Akbar Komijani & Esmaeil Naderi & Nadiya Gandali Alikhani, 2014. "A hybrid approach for forecasting of oil prices volatility," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 323-340, September.
    5. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    6. Vugar Ahmadov & Ulvi Sarkarli & Ramiz Rahmanov, 2018. "Structural Budget Balances in Oil-Rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia," IHEID Working Papers 01-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Omo Aregbeyen & Ismail Olaleke Fasanya, 2017. "Oil Price Volatility and Fiscal Behaviour if Government in Nigeria," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 118-134, June.
    8. Rolando Ossowski & Alberto Gonzáles-Castillo, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4045, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Fuad Mammadov & Adigozalov Shaig, 2017. "Are fiscal rules helpful in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations?," IHEID Working Papers 22-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    10. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:3:p:567-590 is not listed on IDEAS

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