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A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia


  • Carolina Osorio
  • Filiz D Unsal
  • Runchana Pongsaparn


We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting GDP growth and may be thus used as a leading indicator. Based on the FCI, financial conditions in Asia tightened substantially earlier in the global crisis, reflecting losses in the stock markets and tighter credit conditions. In early 2010, financial conditions in Asia recovered rapidly and reached precrisis levels, thanks to accommodative monetary policies and a rapid rebound in regional equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Osorio & Filiz D Unsal & Runchana Pongsaparn, 2011. "A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/170, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/170

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. repec:tpr:asiaec:v:16:y:2017:i:2:p:83-117 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nombulelo Gumata & Eliphas Ndou & Nir Klein, 2012. "A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/196, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Umit Bulut, 2016. "Do Financial Conditions have a Predictive Power on Inflation in Turkey?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 621-628.
    4. repec:eee:inteco:v:150:y:2017:i:c:p:36-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Magdalena Petrovska & Elena Mucheva Mihajlovska, 2013. "Measures of Financial Stability in Macedonia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 2(3), pages 85-110.
    6. Nicoletti, Giulio & Wacker, Konstantin M. & Lodge, David, 2014. "Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economies," Working Paper Series 1743, European Central Bank.
    7. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01110688, HAL.
    8. MacDonald, Ronald & Sogiakas, Vasilios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2015. "An investigation of systemic stress and interdependencies within the Eurozone and Euro Area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 52-69.
    9. A. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Financial Conditions Indices for the Turkish Economy," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1231, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2015. "Turkiye icin Finansal Kosullar Endeksi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(3), pages 41-73.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Jun Ma & Marian Risse & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Common Business Cycles and Volatilities in US States and MSAs: The Role of Economic Uncertainty," Working Papers 201766, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    13. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.
    14. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2017. "Working Paper – WP/17/02- Estimating a time-varying financial conditions index for South Africa," Papers 8008, South African Reserve Bank.
    15. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.


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