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J-Curve of Productivity and Growth; Indian Manufacturing Post-Liberalization

  • Arvind Virmani
  • Danish A Hashim

Most estimates of Indian manufacturing productivity find a slowdown in the 1990s. This has puzzled analysts, given that 1990s reforms were deeper and wider than the 1980s reforms that raised the growth rate of the Indian economy by 2 per cent points. This paper tests the hypothesis of the J curve of Productivity and Growth following major liberalization and finds it to be broadly supported by the data: Technological obsolescence, gradual adoption of new technology and learning by doing result in negative effects on measured productivity.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/163.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/163
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  1. Arvind Virmani, 2006. "India's Economic Growth History: Fluctuations, Trends, Break Points and Phases," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 81-103, July.
  2. Helpman, Elhanan & Rangel, Antonio, 1999. " Adjusting to a New Technology: Experience and Training," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 359-83, December.
  3. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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