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Will Natural Gas Prices Decouple From Oil Prices Across the Pond?

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Listed author(s):
  • Reinout De Bock
  • Jose G Gijon

Abstract

We show that US natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices following substantial institutional and technological changes. We then examine how this interrelationship has evolved in Europe using data for Algeria, one of Europe’s key gas suppliers. Taking into account total gas exports and cyclical conditions in partner countries, we find that gas prices remain linked to oil prices, though the nexus has loosened. Both high oil prices and a modest industrial recovery in partner countries have kept gas exports at low levels in recent years, suggesting changing market forces. The paper then shows how such shifts can have important macroeconomic implications for a big gas exporter such as Algeria.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/143.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2011
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/143
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Keywords: Commodity prices; Algeria; Natural gas; Oil; Gas exporters; Energy economics; Vector autoregressions; gas prices; oil prices; gas exports; gas price; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; International Finance Forecasting and Simulation; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Energy and the Macroeconomy;

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  1. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 187-200.
  2. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 45-60.
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Cited by:

  1. Akbi, Amine & Yassaa, Noureddine & Boudjema, Rachid & Aliouat, Boualem, 2016. "A new method for cost of renewable energy production in Algeria: Integrate all benefits drawn from fossil fuel savings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1150-1157.
  2. Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-García & Luis San Vicente Portes & Luis Enrique García, 2013. "Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Other Operational Studies 17547, The World Bank.
  3. Zolotko, Mikhail & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Modelling the general dependence between commodity forward curves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 284-296.
  4. Jadidzadeh, Ali & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "How does the U.S. natural gas market react to demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 66-74.
  5. Wang, Qiang & Chen, Xi & Jha, Awadhesh N. & Rogers, Howard, 2014. "Natural gas from shale formation – The evolution, evidences and challenges of shale gas revolution in United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-28.

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