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Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore

Author

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  • Siang Meng Tan
  • Joey Chew
  • Sam Ouliaris

Abstract

This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through in Singapore using band-pass spectral regression techniques, allowing for asymmetric effects over the business cycle. First stage pass-through is estimated to be complete and relatively quick, confirming existing views that the exchange rate provides an effective tool to moderate imported inflation in Singapore. Asymmetric pass-through effects over the business cycle are also detected, with importers passing on a smaller share of exchange rate movements during boom periods as compared to recessions. This result suggest that Singapore’s exchange rate policy could afford to "lean against the wind," especially during cyclical expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Siang Meng Tan & Joey Chew & Sam Ouliaris, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Over the Business Cycle in Singapore," IMF Working Papers 11/141, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2018. "Has the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through changed in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 339-360, September.
    2. Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P., 2019. "Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in timber products: The case of oriented strand board in Canada and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Hendar, 2016. "Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy in Indonesia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 193-203, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Raphael Brun-Aguerre & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo, 2017. "Heads I win; tails you lose: asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through into import prices," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(2), pages 587-612, February.
    5. Rajmund Mirdala & Júlia Ďurčová, 2016. "Priepustnosť menových kurzov nových členských krajín Európskej unie [Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in New EU Member Countries]," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(4), pages 377-404.
    6. Suleyman Hilmi Kal & Ferhat Arslaner & Nuran Arslaner, 2015. "Sources of Asymmetry and Non-linearity in Pass-Through of Exchange Rate and Import Price to Consumer Price Inflation for the Turkish Economy during Inflation Targeting Regime," Working Papers 1530, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.

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