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Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

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  • Filiz D Unsal
  • Carlos Caceres

Abstract

This paper explores how much of the movements in the sovereign spreads of Asian economies over the course of the global financial crisis has reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion; (ii) country-specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, and indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns and the uncertainty surrounding exchange rates. Earlier in the crisis, the increase in market-implied contagion led to higher Asian sovereign bond yield spreads over swaps. But, after the crisis, Asia’s sovereign spreads normalized, despite the debt crisis in the euro area, reflecting a fall in both exchange rate and spillover risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Filiz D Unsal & Carlos Caceres, 2011. "Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia," IMF Working Papers 11/134, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
    2. Cantero-Saiz, Maria & Sanfilippo-Azofra, Sergio & Torre-Olmo, Begoña & López-Gutiérrez, Carlos, 2014. "Sovereign risk and the bank lending channel in Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Horta, Paulo & Lagoa, Sérgio & Martins, Luís, 2014. "The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on the Hurst exponents of international stock markets: Implications for efficiency and contagion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 140-153.
    4. Heiko Hesse & Ferhan Salman & Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 14/103, International Monetary Fund.

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