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From West to East; Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand


  • Yan M Sun


This paper examines the size and source of external spillovers to Australia and New Zealand based on a structural vector autoregression (VAR) approach. It finds that during the last decade shocks from emerging Asia have become more important than those from the United States in affecting Australia’s business cycle. A 1 percent shock to emerging Asia’s growth is found to shift Australian growth by about 1/3 percent. Furthermore, there is evidence that commodity prices dominate the transmission of shocks from emerging Asia to Australia. The influence of emerging Asia on New Zealand is found to come indirectly through Australia, with Australian shocks transmitting almost "one-on-one" to New Zealand, largely through financial factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan M Sun, 2011. "From West to East; Estimating External Spillovers to Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 11/120, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/120

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, March.
    2. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2009. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 353-383, June.
    3. David Gillmore & Phil Briggs, 2010. "World trade interdependencies: a New Zealand perspective," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 73, pages 35-46, June.
    4. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 08/3, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bordo, Michael & Hargreaves, David & Kida, Mizuho, 2011. "Global shocks, economic growth and financial crises: 120 years of New Zealand experience," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(03), pages 331-355, December.
    6. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    7. Philip Liu, 2010. "The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 486-503, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Osborn, Denise R. & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2015. "Growth in China and the US: Effects on a small commodity exporter economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-277.


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