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On Brazil’s Term Structure; Stylized Facts and Analysis of Macroeconomic Interactions

  • Rodrigo Cabral
  • Richard Munclinger
  • Luiz Alves
  • Marco Rodriguez Waldo
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    This paper characterizes the term structure of Treasury bond yields for Brazil, and estimates a Nelson-Siegel Model to reproduce its stylized facts for the period 2004-2010. For this purpose, this paper uses a software developed by Fund staff. In addition, the paper estimates two versions of the Nelson-Siegel Model that incorporates macroeconomic variables with the aim of assessing the dynamic interactions between the yield curve and the macroeconomy.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 11/113.

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    Length: 33
    Date of creation: 01 May 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/113
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    1. Vicente, José & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2008. "Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 490-497.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2003. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Working Paper Series 2003-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Caio Almeida & Romeu Gomes & André Leite & Axel Simonsen & José Vicente, 2009. "Does Curvature Enhance Forecasting?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(08), pages 1171-1196.
    7. Lima, Alexandre Maia Correia & Issler, João Victor, 2003. "A hipótese das expectativas na estrutura a termo de juros no Brasil: Uma aplicação de modelos de valor presente," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 480, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    8. Marco Shinobu Matsumura & Ajax Reynaldo Bello Moreira & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2010. "Forecasting the Yield Curve with Linear Factor Models," Working Papers Series 223, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Björk, Tomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 1997. "Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 209, Stockholm School of Economics.
    10. Fernandes Ribeiro, Priscila & Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls, 2010. "Economic cycles and term structure : application to Brazil," Textos para discussão 259, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    11. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ricardo D. Brito & Angelo José Mont'Alverne Duarte & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2003. "O Prêmio pela Maturidade na Estrutura a Termo das Taxas de Juros Brasileiras," Working Papers Series 72, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Marco Matsumara & Ajax R.B. Moreira, 2005. "Can Macroeconomic Variables Account for the Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads? Studying the Brazilian Case," Discussion Papers 1106, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    14. Siegel, Andrew F. & Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Long-Term Behavior of Yield Curves," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(01), pages 105-110, March.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States," IMF Working Papers 10/258, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade, 2001. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 30, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    18. Marcos S. Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve With no Arbitrage Models," Discussion Papers 1210, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    19. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:57:y:2003:i:4:a:862 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Getúlio Borges da Silveira & Octavio Bessada, 2003. "Análise de componentes principais de dados funcionais - uma aplicação às estruturas a termo de taxas de juros," Working Papers Series 73, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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