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Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts

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  • Kei Kawakami
  • Rafael Romeu

Abstract

A stochastic debt forecasting framework is presented where projected debt distributions reflect both the joint realization of the fiscal policy reaction to contemporaneous stochastic macroeconomic projections, and also the second-round effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic projections. The forecasting framework thus reflects the impact of the primary balance on the forecast of macro aggregates. Previously-developed forecasting algorithms that do not incorporate these second-round effects are shown to have systematic forecast errors. Evidence suggests that the second-round effects have statistically and economically significant impacts on the direction and dispersion of the debt-to-GDP forecasts. For example, a positive structural primary balance shock lowers the domestic real interest rate, in turn raising GDP and lowering the median debt-to-GDP projection by an additional 10 percent of GDP in the medium term relative to prior forecasting algorithms. In addition, the framework employs a new long-term (five decade) data base and accounts for parameter uncertainty, and for potentially non-normally distributed shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Kawakami & Rafael Romeu, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Transmission in Stochastic Debt Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 11/107, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luiz de Mello & Diego Moccero, 2006. "Brazil's Fiscal Stance during 1995-2005: The Effect of Indebtedness on Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 485, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Branimir Jovanovic & Aneta Krstevska & Neda Popovska-Kamnar, 2015. "Can Monetary Policy Affect Economic Activity under Surplus Liquidity? Some Evidence from Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-03, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    2. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2016. "External Factors in Debt Sustainability Analysis: An Application to Latin America?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 81-120, June.
    3. Danica Unevska-Andonova & Dijana Janevska-Stefanova, 2015. "Transmission of External Shocks in Assessing Debt Sustainability, the Case of Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-04, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia.
    4. Aleksandar Zdravkovic & Aleksandra Bradic-Martinovic, 2012. "Public Debt Sustainability in Western Balkan Countries," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    5. Kenta Inoue, 2014. "Is Correlation Puzzle Really Puzzling? Reassessing Motives Of Foreign Asset Holdings By Us Investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 160-172, March.
    6. Gustavo Adler & Sebastian Sosa, 2013. "External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 13/27, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Claeys, Peter & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2014. "How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?," Working Paper Series 1750, European Central Bank.
    8. Magnus Saxegaard, 2014. "Safe Debt and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets; An Application to South Africa," IMF Working Papers 14/231, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics; The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks," IMF Working Papers 12/230, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazil; Debt sustainability; IMF; Fiscal policy; Forecasting; debt; interest; interest rate; interest rates; budget; Simulation Methods; National Deficit Surplus;

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