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Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?

Author

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  • Marcello M. Estevão
  • Evridiki Tsounta

Abstract

The recent crisis has had differential effects across U.S. states and industries causing a wide geographic dispersion in skill mismatches and housing market performance. We document these facts and, using data from the 50 states plus D.C from 1991 to 2008, we present econometric evidence that supports that changes in state-level unemployment rates are linked to skill mismatches and housing market performance even after controlling for cyclical effects. This result suggests some causality going from mismatches and housing conditions to unemployment rates. The numerical estimates imply that the structural unemployment rate in 2010 was about 1¾ percentage points higher than before the onset of the housing market meltdown at end-2006. Reversing this increase may require targeted active labor market policies and measures to expedite the adjustment in housing markets, as our results suggest weak housing market conditions interact negatively with skill mismatches to produce higher unemployment rates in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello M. Estevão & Evridiki Tsounta, 2011. "Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment?," IMF Working Papers 11/105, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2001. "The Rise in Disability Recipiency and the Decline in Unemployment," JCPR Working Papers 226, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Menzie D. Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun's law," NBER Working Papers 19047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Chen, Jinzhu & Kannan, Prakash & Loungani, Prakash & Trehan, Bharat, 2012. "New evidence on cyclical and structural sources of unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-23.
    3. Nwabisa Kolisi & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Changes in the relationshp between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," Working Papers 1704, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jul 2017.
    4. Arseneau, David M. & Epstein, Brendan, 2014. "The Welfare Costs of Skill-Mismatch Employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. McGuinness, Seamus & Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Redmond, Paul, 2017. "How Useful Is the Concept of Skills Mismatch?," IZA Discussion Papers 10786, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 405-451.
    8. International Labour Office., 2013. "Global employment trends for youth 2013 : a generation at risk," Global Employment Trends Reports 994816973402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
    9. Chinn, Menzie & Ferrara, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 118-129.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Namibia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 16/374, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Curtis Simon, 2014. "Sectoral Change And Unemployment During The Great Recession, In Historical Perspective," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 828-855, November.
    12. Arpaia, Alfonso & Kiss, Aron & Turrini, Alessandro, 2014. "Is Unemployment Structural or Cyclical? Main Features of Job Matching in the EU after the Crisis," IZA Policy Papers 91, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Jisoo Hwang & Meeyeon Kim & Tae-Jeong Kim, 2014. "Strategies for Reforming Korea's Labor Market to Foster Growth," Working Papers 2014-25, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    14. Mitra, Arup., 2013. "Can industry be the key to pro-poor growth? : An exploratory analysis for India," ILO Working Papers 994843463402676, International Labour Organization.
    15. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Roy J. Rotheim, 2013. "The economist who mistook his model for a market," Chapters,in: Teaching Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 2, pages 34-55 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Cabo Verde; Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 14/296, International Monetary Fund.
    18. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2131 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Downing, Janelle, 2016. "The health effects of the foreclosure crisis and unaffordable housing: A systematic review and explanation of evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 88-96.
    20. Nwabisa Kolisi & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Changes in the relationshp between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," Working Papers 1704, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jul 2017.
    21. Andrés Álvarez, 2016. "La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 962, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    22. Kevin J. Mumford & Katie Schultz, 2013. "The Effect of Underwater Mortgages on Unemployment," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1274, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    23. Hogrefe, Jan & Sachs, Andreas, 2014. "Unemployment and labor reallocation in Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-083, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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