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A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine; How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Tahsin Saadi Sedik
  • Serhan Cevik

Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Serhan Cevik, 2011. "A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine; How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 11/1, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:11/1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arze del Granado, Francisco Javier & Coady, David & Gillingham, Robert, 2012. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2234-2248.
    2. Jean-Marie Cardebat & Jean-Marc Figuet, 2004. "What explains Bordeaux wine prices?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 293-296.
    3. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 06/257, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:104-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    4. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    5. Schalck, Christophe & Chenavaz, Régis, 2015. "Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 290-303.
    6. Elie Bouri & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Testing the Efficiency of the Wine Market using Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," Working Papers 201664, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:eee:quaeco:v:67:y:2018:i:c:p:347-361 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia & Mariano Sardi, 2012. "Common Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices," BCRA Working Paper Series 201257, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    9. Alexandra Dwyer & George Gardner & Thomas Williams, 2011. "Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisation," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 49-58, June.
    10. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Wing-Keung Wong & Zhenzhen Zhu, 2017. "Is Wine a Good Choice for Investment?," Working Papers 201781, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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