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Beyond the Crisis; Revisiting Emerging Europe’s Growth Model

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  • Ruben V Atoyan

Abstract

Focusing on the nexus between economic growth and buildup of external vulnerabilities, this paper provides a systematic account of different growth strategies followed in Central and Eastern Europe in 2000-08 and then uses this growth diagnostics to derive implications for the post-crisis recovery. The main findings point to three policy lessons for improving growth sustainability. First, greater reliance on tradable sectors should be the cornerstone of the future growth model. Second, enhancing domestic sources of bank credit funding would contribute to mitigation of external vulnerabilities and make domestic financial system more resilient to global financial shocks. Third, prudential and macroeconomic policies will have to be more proactive in managing capital inflows, including funneling these inflows into investment in the export-oriented industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruben V Atoyan, 2010. "Beyond the Crisis; Revisiting Emerging Europe’s Growth Model," IMF Working Papers 10/92, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/92
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdul Abiad & Daniel Leigh & Ashoka Mody, 2009. "Financial integration, capital mobility, and income convergence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 241-305, April.
    2. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
    3. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jesmin Rahman, 2010. "Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance; What Lies Ahead in Eastern Europe?," IMF Working Papers 10/97, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Abdul d Abiad & Ashoka Mody & Susan M Schadler & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union," IMF Occasional Papers 252, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alexander Klemm, 2010. "Causes, benefits, and risks of business tax incentives," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(3), pages 315-336, June.
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    1. repec:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0037-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Julia Kiraly & Atila Csajbok & Mihaly Andras Kovacs, 2011. "A Policy Recipe for Successful Convergence of CESEE Countries in the Post-crisis World," Chapters,in: Post-Crisis Growth and Integration in Europe, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Romania; Staff Report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Requests for Modification and Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria—Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/227, International Monetary Fund.

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