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Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery; Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

  • Eteri Kvintradze
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    The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970–2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth, while a survey of the economic literature suggests that the Russian economy could be viewed as a weighted combination of virtual and normal forces. If the Russian economy is considered to be dominated by normal market economy forces, higher energy export receipts provide an opportunity for structural reforms while compensating for social costs, making the economy less vulnerable to decline in world energy prices. However, the domination of virtual forces—value transfers from the energy sector to strategic enterprises—suggests that high world energy prices are masking an inefficient manufacturing sector, and that the Russian economy is highly vulnerable to energy price declines.

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    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/89.

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    Length: 28
    Date of creation: 01 Apr 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/89
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    1. Brown, J. David & Earle, John S., 2006. "The microeconomics of creating productive jobs : a synthesis of firm-level studies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3886, The World Bank.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    3. Djankov, Simeon & Murrell, Peter, 2002. "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 3319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap; Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    6. Dalia Marin & Monika Schnitzer, 1999. "Disorganization and Financial Collapse," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 285, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Paul R. Gregory & Valery Lazarev, 2004. "Structural Change in Russian Transition," Working Papers 896, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    8. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    9. Clifford Zinnes & Yair Eilat & Jeffrey Sachs, 2001. "The Gains from Privatization in Transition Economies: Is "Change of Ownership" Enough?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 7.
    10. Susan J. Linz & Gary Krueger, 1998. "Enterprise Restructuring in Russia's Transition Economy: Formal and Informal Mechanisms," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 152, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2005. "A Normal Country: Russia After Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, Winter.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
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