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Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery; Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition

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  • Eteri Kvintradze

Abstract

The health of the Russian economy still depends heavily on natural resource revenues. The history of the economic collapse and recovery in 1970–2004 provides new evidence on the sources of Russian economic growth, while a survey of the economic literature suggests that the Russian economy could be viewed as a weighted combination of virtual and normal forces. If the Russian economy is considered to be dominated by normal market economy forces, higher energy export receipts provide an opportunity for structural reforms while compensating for social costs, making the economy less vulnerable to decline in world energy prices. However, the domination of virtual forces—value transfers from the energy sector to strategic enterprises—suggests that high world energy prices are masking an inefficient manufacturing sector, and that the Russian economy is highly vulnerable to energy price declines.

Suggested Citation

  • Eteri Kvintradze, 2010. "Russia's Output Collapse and Recovery; Evidence from the Post-Soviet Transition," IMF Working Papers 10/89, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/89
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marin, Dalia & Schnitzer, Monika, 2005. "Disorganization and financial collapse," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 387-408, February.
    2. Simeon Djankov & Peter Murrell, 2002. "Enterprise Restructuring in Transition: A Quantitative Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 739-792, September.
    3. repec:hrv:faseco:33078568 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Susan J Linz & Gary Krueger, 1998. "Enterprise Restructuring in Russia's Transition Economy: Formal and Informal Mechanisms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 5-52, July.
    5. Clifford Zinnes & Yair Eilat & Jeffrey Sachs, 2001. "The Gains from Privatization in Transition Economies: Is "Change of Ownership" Enough?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-7.
    6. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2005. "A Normal Country: Russia After Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, Winter.
    7. Paul R. Gregory & Valery Lazarev, 2004. "Structural Change in Russian Transition," Working Papers 896, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap; Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 06/68, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    12. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    13. Brown, J. David & Earle, John S., 2006. "The microeconomics of creating productive jobs : a synthesis of firm-level studies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3886, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    2. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-123 is not listed on IDEAS

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