Estimating the Inflation-Growth Nexus; A Smooth Transition Model
Motivated by the global inflation episode of 2007-08 and concern that high levels of inflation could undermine growth, this paper uses a panel of 165 countries and data for 1960-2007 to revisit the nexus between inflation and growth. We use a smooth transition model to investigate the speed at which inflation beyond a threshold becomes harmful to growth, an important consideration in the policy response to rising inflation as the world economy recovers. We estimate that for all country groups (except for advanced countries) inflation above a threshold of about 10 percent quickly becomes harmful to growth, suggesting the need for a prompt policy response to inflation at or above the relevant threshold. For the advanced economies, the threshold is much lower. For oil exporting countries, the estimates are less robust, possibly reflecting heterogeneity among oil producers, but the effect of higher inflation for oil producers is found to be stronger.
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- By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001.
"Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
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"When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies,"
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2000-22, Claremont Colleges.
- Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
- Robert Pollin & Andong Zhu, 2006. "Inflation and economic growth: a cross-country nonlinear analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 28(4), pages 593-614, July.
- Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
- David, Drukker & Pedro, Gomis-Porqueras & Paula, Hernandez -erme, 2005. "Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth: a new panel-data approach," MPRA Paper 38225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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