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Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Cemile Sancak
  • Jing Xing
  • Ricardo Velloso

Abstract

This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. We also find that a worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions). A key implication is that, particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Cemile Sancak & Jing Xing & Ricardo Velloso, 2010. "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 10/71, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/71
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and international evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 391-410.
    2. Hongbin Cai & Qiao Liu, 2009. "Competition and Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Chinese Industrial Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 764-795, April.
    3. Luiz de Mello, 2008. "Avoiding the Value Added Tax: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 604, OECD Publishing.
    4. John Brondolo, 2009. "Collecting Taxes During an Economic Crisis; Challenges and Policy Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/17, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Agha, Ali & Haughton, Jonathan, 1996. "Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 303-308, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Mourre & Savina Princen, 2015. "Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 018, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis & Timotheos Angelidis & George Filis, 2013. "Oil price shocks and volatility do predict stock market regimes," Working Papers 170, Bank of Greece.
    3. Nihal Bayraktar & Tuan Minh Le & Blanca Moreno-Dodson, 2012. "Tax Capacity and Tax Effort: Extended Cross-Country Analysis from 1994 to 2009," EcoMod2012 3858, EcoMod.
    4. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    5. Romain Houssa & Kelbesa Megersa, 2017. "Institutional quality, economic development and the performance of VAT," BeFinD Working Papers 0115, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    6. Tomáš Kouba, 2016. "The crime and the rationality in the area of tax evasions and tax arrears," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 83-97.
    7. Rolando Ossowski & Alberto Gonzáles-Castillo, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4045, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    9. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2013. "Audits and tax offenders: Recent evidence from Greece," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 519-522.
    10. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2014. "Is there any evidence of VAT related buoyancy effects in Greece?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1762-1775.
    11. Salar, Laleena & Zaman, Khalid & Khilji, Bashir Ahmad & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq & Lodhi, Mohammad Saeed, 2013. "The consequences of revenue gap in Pakistan: Unveiling the reality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 281-294.
    12. Jean-François Brun & Maïmouna Diakite, 2016. "Tax Potential and Tax Effort: An Empirical Estimation for Non-resource Tax Revenue and VAT’s Revenue," Working Papers halshs-01332053, HAL.
    13. Athanasios O. Tagkalakis, 2013. "Assessing the variability of indirect tax elasticity in Greece," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2098-2109.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Republic of Lithuania; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 11/327, International Monetary Fund.

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