Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle
This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. We also find that a worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions). A key implication is that, particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency.
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- John Brondolo, 2009. "Collecting Taxes During an Economic Crisis; Challenges and Policy Options," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/17, International Monetary Fund.
- Agha, Ali & Haughton, Jonathan, 1996. "Designing VAT Systems: Some Efficiency Considerations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 303-08, May.
- Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2005.
"The collection efficiency of the value added tax: theory and international evidence,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt42d103zh, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and international evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 391-410.
- Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2005. "The Collection Efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hongbin Cai & Qiao Liu, 2009. "Competition and Corporate Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Chinese Industrial Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 764-795, 04.
- Luiz de Mello, 2008. "Avoiding the Value Added Tax: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 604, OECD Publishing.
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