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What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?

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  • Petia Topalova
  • Dan Nyberg

Abstract

This paper discusses possible medium-term public debt targets for India, based on evidence from the economic literature on prudent levels of public debt and the feasibility for the country to meet a particular target over the next 5-6 years. While recognizing the challenges in determining an appropriate debt target, cross-country analysis and simulations suggest that a debt ratio in the range of 60-65 percent of GDP by 2015/16 might be suitable for India. Such a debt ceiling, while still above the average debt level for emerging markets, is within the range of debt ratios that would provide room for countercyclical fiscal policy and contingent liabilities. It would also send a strong signal of the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation by making a clear break with the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Petia Topalova & Dan Nyberg, 2010. "What Level of Public Debt Could India Target?," IMF Working Papers 10/7, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/7
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Vlasov, 2011. "Russian Fiscal Framework Past, Present and Future.Do we Need a Change?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(64), pages 35-81, October -.
    2. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. van Doorn, Ralph & Suri, Vivek & Gooptu, Sudarshan, 2010. "Do middle-income countries continue to have the ability to deal with the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5381, The World Bank.
    4. Narayan, Laxmi, 2017. "Growth of Public Debt in Haryana – Dynamism or Misplaced Priorities," MPRA Paper 79431, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross country analysis; Debt management; Debt sustainability; Fiscal consolidation; Risk management; Public debt; India; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules; debt target; government debt; debt ratios;

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