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Correlations in Emerging Market Bonds; The Role of Local and Global Factors

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  • A. Javier Hamann
  • Irina Bunda
  • Subir Lall

Abstract

This paper examines the comovement in emerging market bond returns and disentangles the influence of external and domestic factors. The conceptual framework, set in the context of asset allocation, allows us to describe the channels through which shocks originating in a particular emerging or mature market are transmitted across countries and markets. We show that using a simple measure of cross-country correlations together with the commonly used average correlation coefficient can be more informative during episodes of heightened market instability. Data for the period 1997-2008 are analyzed for evidence of true contagion and common external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Javier Hamann & Irina Bunda & Subir Lall, 2010. "Correlations in Emerging Market Bonds; The Role of Local and Global Factors," IMF Working Papers 10/6, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/6
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    Cited by:

    1. Küçük, Ugur N., 2009. "Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Market, Too Risky to Invest?," MPRA Paper 21878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lucey, Brian M. & Zhang, QiYu, 2010. "Does cultural distance matter in international stock market comovement? Evidence from emerging economies around the world," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 62-78, March.
    3. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
    4. Eterovic, Nicolas A. & Eterovic, Dalibor S., 2013. "Separating the wheat from the chaff: Understanding portfolio returns in an emerging market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 145-169.
    5. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2013. "Typological Classification, Diagnostics, and Measurement of Flights-to-Quality," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/15, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    7. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?: Asset Price Contagion During the Global Financial ," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 969, OECD Publishing.
    8. Karen Juliet Leiton Rodríguez & Juan Sebastián Rassa Robayo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2014. "Mercado de Deuda Corporativa en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011921, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. repec:eee:finana:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:35-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
    11. Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2017. "Frontier and emerging government bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 232-255.
    12. Westerlund, Joakim & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2016. "Panel multi-predictor test procedures with an application to emerging market sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 44-60.
    13. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.
    14. Yoko Shinagawa, 2014. "Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers; The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration," IMF Working Papers 14/187, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Susanna Saroyan & Lilit Popoyan, 2017. "Bank-sovereign ties against interbank market integration: the case of the Italian segment," LEM Papers Series 2017/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. repec:dug:actaec:y:2017:i:2:p:139-156 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    18. Dimic, Nebojsa & Kiviaho, Jarno & Piljak, Vanja & Äijö, Janne, 2016. "Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-51.
    19. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    20. Dalibor Eterovic & Nicolas Eterovic, 2012. "Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Understanding Portfolio Returns in an Emerging Market," Working Papers wp_025, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    21. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
    22. Karen Juliet Leiton Rodríguez & Juan Sebastián Rassa Robayo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2014. "Mercado de Deuda Corporativa en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 829, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino & Mariana O. Machado de Sousa, 2011. "BRIC and the U.S. Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Stocks and Bonds Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0764, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    24. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:163-186 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Emerging markets; Economic models; Cross country analysis; Bond markets; Asset prices; financial crises; comovement; contagion; correlations; bond; bonds; correlation; bond returns;

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