Structural Models in Real Time
This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2010|
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- Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
- Eric Leeper, 2003. "An "Inflation Reports" Report," NBER Working Papers 10089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011.
"Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
- Mestre, Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2008. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Working Paper Series 0950, European Central Bank.
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