The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Words vs. Deeds
This paper examines the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral trade while differentiating the effects of "words" and "deeds". Our findings-based on an extended database for de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications-show that while fixed exchange rate regimes increase trade, there is no systematic difference in the effects of policy announcements versus actions to maintain exchange rate stability. The trade generating effect of more stable exchange rate regimes is however more pronounced when words and actions are aligned, both in the short and long-run. Policy credibility therefore plays an important role in determining the effects of de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements such that deviations between the two could be costly. In addition, we find evidence that (i) the impact of hard pegs such as currency unions is broadly similar to that of conventional pegs; (ii) the currency union and direct peg effects evolve over time; and (iii) the effects of more stable regimes are heterogeneous across country groups.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
- Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005.
"Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
- J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006.
"The Log of Gravity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
- Volker Nitsch, 2002. "Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, 04.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:3:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004.
"Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2004.
"Exchange-Rate Regimes: "Does What Countries Say Matter?","
IHEID Working Papers
07-2004, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 8.
- Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004.
"Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246.
- Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2001. "Distance, Trade and FDI: A Hausman-Taylor SUR Approach," WIFO Working Papers 164, WIFO.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009.
"The estimated effects of the euro on trade: why are they below historical effects of monetary unions among smaller countries?,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
53362, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," NBER Working Papers 14542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp08-076, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Michal Hulej & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Pierre Ewenczyk, 2006.
"Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa,"
IMF Working Papers
06/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Charalambos Tsangarides & Pierre Ewenczyk & Michal Hulej & Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, 2009. "Are Africa's Currency Unions Good for Trade?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 876-918, November.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 2001.
"Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2002. "Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1151, June.
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence," Working Paper Series 2001-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Michael Bleaney, & Manuela Francisco, .
"Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: A Statistical Analysis of Alternative Methods,"
07/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
- Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2007. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: a statistical analysis of alternative methods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16.
- Egger, Peter, 2008. "De Facto exchange rate arrangement tightness and bilateral trade flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 228-232, May.
- Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003.
"Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes,"
IMF Working Papers
03/243, International Monetary Fund.
- Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Aasim M. Husain, 2004. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Occasional Papers 229, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007.
"Exchange rate regimes and trade,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
9, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "Fixed effects, random effects or Hausman-Taylor?: A pretest estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 361-369, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow)or (Hassan Zaidi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.