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The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade; Words vs. Deeds

  • Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
  • Charalambos G. Tsangarides

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate regimes on bilateral trade while differentiating the effects of "words" and "deeds". Our findings-based on an extended database for de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications-show that while fixed exchange rate regimes increase trade, there is no systematic difference in the effects of policy announcements versus actions to maintain exchange rate stability. The trade generating effect of more stable exchange rate regimes is however more pronounced when words and actions are aligned, both in the short and long-run. Policy credibility therefore plays an important role in determining the effects of de jure and de facto exchange rate arrangements such that deviations between the two could be costly. In addition, we find evidence that (i) the impact of hard pegs such as currency unions is broadly similar to that of conventional pegs; (ii) the currency union and direct peg effects evolve over time; and (iii) the effects of more stable regimes are heterogeneous across country groups.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 10/48.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/48
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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Aasim M. Husain & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Michal Hulej & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Pierre Ewenczyk, 2006. "Stylized Factson Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions; Implications for Africa," IMF Working Papers 06/31, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "Fixed effects, random effects or Hausman-Taylor?: A pretest estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 361-369, June.
  5. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEP Discussion Papers dp0701, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. Egger, Peter, 2008. "De Facto exchange rate arrangement tightness and bilateral trade flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 228-232, May.
  10. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  12. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2007. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: a statistical analysis of alternative methods," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(3), pages 1-16.
  13. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
  14. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade," CERT Discussion Papers 0505, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "The estimated effects of the euro on trade: why are they below historical effects of monetary unions among smaller countries?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 53362, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:3:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2004. "Distance, trade and FDI: a Hausman-Taylor SUR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 227-246.
  19. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  20. Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 8.
  21. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
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