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Inflation Targeting and the Crisis; An Empirical Assessment

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  • Irineu E de Carvalho Filho

Abstract

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August 2008, IT countries lowered nominal policy rates by more and this loosening translated into an even larger differential in real interest rates relative to other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and saw sharp real depreciations not associated with a greater perception of risk by markets. We also find some weak evidence that IT countries did better on unemployment rates and advanced IT countries have had relatively stronger industrial production performance. Finally, we find that advanced IT countries had higher GDP growth rates than their non-IT peers, but find no such difference for emerging countries or the full sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis; An Empirical Assessment," IMF Working Papers 10/45, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Luis Fernando Melo & Santiago Téllez & Mauricio Villamizar, 2013. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 428, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    4. Novák, Zsuzsanna, 2014. "Monetáris politika, infláció és gazdasági növekedés Kelet-Közép- és Délkelet-Európában
      [Monetary policy, inflation and economic growth in Central and South Eastern Europe]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 923-942.
    5. Joseph D. ALBA & Wai-Mun CHIA & Donghyun PARK, 2011. "Foreign Output Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes in Small Open Economies: A DSGE Evaluation of East Asia," Working Papers DP-2011-09, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    6. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302 Elsevier.
    7. Armand FOUEJIEU AZANGUE, 2012. "Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 370, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Kenji Moriyama, 2011. "Inflation Inertia in Egypt and its Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 11/160, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    10. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
    11. Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesús Ferreiro, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 675-692, December.
    12. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2010. "Weathering the financial storm: The importance of fundamentals and flexibility," Economics Working Papers 2010-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    13. repec:ilo:ilowps:464250 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alba, Joseph D. & Chia, Wai-Mun & Park, Donghyun, 2012. "A Welfare Evaluation of East Asian Monetary Policy Regimes under Foreign Output Shock," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 299, Asian Development Bank.
    15. Juan Guillermo Bedoya Ospina, 2017. "Ciclos de crédito, liquidez global y regímenes monetarios: una aproximación para América Latina," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, vol. 78, February.
    16. Armand Fouejieu Azangue, 2012. "Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?," Working Papers halshs-00826277, HAL.
    17. Carlos Carrasco & Jesus Ferreiro, 2013. "Inflation targeting in Mexico," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 341-372.
    18. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:05:n:s0217590815501088 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Petreski, Marjan, 2013. "Inflation targeting at the crossroads: Evidence from post-communist economies during the crisis," MPRA Paper 47018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk, 2013. "Low-inflation-targeting monetary policy and differential unemployment rate: Is monetary policy to be blamed for the financial crisis? — Evidence from major OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 546-564.
    21. Pınar Kaynak, 2013. "Inflation Targeting: A Comparative Empirical Analysis," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 220, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    22. Felipe Jaque S. & Alfredo Pistelli M, 2011. "Impacto de la Crisis Financiera Global del 2008-09: ¿Qué Explica las Diferencias de Crecimiento entre Países?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(1), pages 69-78, April.
    23. Jose De Gregorio, 2013. "Resilience in Latin America; Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies," IMF Working Papers 13/259, International Monetary Fund.

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