Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies
This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2010|
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- Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca A Ricci & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments; CGER Methodologies," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
- Russell Smyth, 2007. "Asia'S Booming Economies A Decade After The Crisis," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 26(3), pages 193-195, 09.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000.
"The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
- Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited; Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 00/123, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Rudolfs Bems, 2009. "Exchange Rate Assessments; Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/281, International Monetary Fund.
- Anwar Nasution, 2007. "Global Savings-Investment Imbalances: What Role for East Asia?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-13, May.
- Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2005.
"Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 2.
- Mohsin S. Khan & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2004. "Real Exchange Rates In Developing Countries; Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Working Papers 04/188, International Monetary Fund.
- Jungjin Lee & Abdul d Abiad & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments; How Well Have They Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?," IMF Working Papers 09/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union; Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
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