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Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis; What a Difference a Year Makes

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  • Andrew J Swiston

Abstract

This paper investigates Central America's external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008-09 global recession. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1 percent, on average. Spillovers from global shocks and the rest of the region also affect activity in some countries. Spillovers are mostly transmitted through advanced country financial conditions and fluctuations in external demand for Central American exports. Shocks to advanced economies associated with the 2008-09 financial crisis lowered economic activity in the region by 4 to 5 percent, on average, accounting for a majority of the observed slowdown. The impact was almost twice as large as elasticities estimated on pre-crisis data would have predicted. These results underscore the importance of operating credible policy frameworks that enable a countercyclical policy response to external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J Swiston, 2010. "Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis; What a Difference a Year Makes," IMF Working Papers 10/35, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/35
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes, 2016. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Working Papers 2016-80, Peruvian Economic Association.
    2. Olivier Basdevant & Andrew Jonelis & Borislava Mircheva & Slavi Slavov, 2015. "The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa: Some Facts and Possible Explanations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 371-389, September.
    3. Andrew J Swiston, 2011. "Official Dollarization As a Monetary Regime; Its Effectson El Salvador," IMF Working Papers 11/129, International Monetary Fund.

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