Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis; What a Difference a Year Makes
This paper investigates Central America's external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008-09 global recession. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1 percent, on average. Spillovers from global shocks and the rest of the region also affect activity in some countries. Spillovers are mostly transmitted through advanced country financial conditions and fluctuations in external demand for Central American exports. Shocks to advanced economies associated with the 2008-09 financial crisis lowered economic activity in the region by 4 to 5 percent, on average, accounting for a majority of the observed slowdown. The impact was almost twice as large as elasticities estimated on pre-crisis data would have predicted. These results underscore the importance of operating credible policy frameworks that enable a countercyclical policy response to external shocks.
|Date of creation:||01 Feb 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA|
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
- Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009.
"Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "From Capital Flow Bonanza to Financial Crash," MPRA Paper 11866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- World Bank, 2005. "Global Economic Prospects 2006 : Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7306, August.
- Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, 02.
- Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Financial integration, GDP correlation and the endogeneity of optimum currency areas," Working Papers 25/2005, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Post-Print hal-01022326, HAL.
- Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9857, Sciences Po.
- Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances; How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Norbert Fiess, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 49-72.
- Norbert Fiess, "undated". "Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America," Working Papers 2005_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Fiess, Norbert, 2005. "Business cycle synchronization and regional integration: a case study for Central America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3584, The World Bank.
- Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
- Imbs, Jean, 2004. "The Real Effects of Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jean Imbs, 2006. "The Real Effects of Financial Integration," Post-Print hal-00612566, HAL.
- Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
- César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto Stein, 2002. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries Any Different?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 195, Central Bank of Chile.
- César Calderón & Alberto Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?," Research Department Publications 4315, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- César Calderón & Alberto E. Chong & Ernesto H. Stein, 2003. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronization: Are Developing Countries any Different?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6501, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Connel Fullenkamp & Thomas F. Cosimano & Michael T. Gapen & Ralph Chami & Peter J Montiel & Adolfo Barajas, 2008. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Remittances," IMF Occasional Papers 259, International Monetary Fund. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)