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What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach


  • Shengzu Wang
  • Patrizia Tumbarello


This paper analyzes the factors driving house prices in Australia from a cross-country perspective using several approaches. It uses a cointegration technique to estimate the long-run equilibrium house prices in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada and assesses the extent of a possible disequilibrium. It also presents an event analysis to shed some light on the link between house prices, capital inflows and the terms of trade. The econometric analysis suggests an overvaluation of 5-10 percent depending on the model specification. Event analysis indicates that terms of trade shocks were associated with larger increases in house prices in Australia, than in the case of strong capital inflow episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengzu Wang & Patrizia Tumbarello, 2010. "What Drives House Prices in Australia? A+L4584 Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 10/291, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/291

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David M. Williams, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    3. Renee Fry & James Hocking & Vance L. Martin, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 17-33, March.
    4. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, June.
    5. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Luci Ellis & Dan Andrews, 2001. "City Sizes, Housing Costs, and Wealth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "Extending a SVAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(268), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    9. Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "House Prices in Australia - 1970 to 2003 - Facts and Explanations," Research Papers 0504, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
    10. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Luci Ellis, 2006. "Housing and Housing Finance: The View from Australia and Beyond," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sean Joss Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The effects of capital inflows on South Africa's economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 923-938, June.
    2. Luis M. Cubeddu & Camilo E Tovar Mora & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America; Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 12/193, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:uts:finphd:35 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Judith Yates, 2011. "Housing in Australia in the 2000s: On the Agenda Too Late?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.), The Australian Economy in the 2000s Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Paul Corrigan, 2017. "Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study," Staff Working Papers 17-1, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item


    Economic models; Cross country analysis; Australia; Capital inflows; Housing prices; Terms of trade; House prices; cointegration; VECM; event analysis; capital inflow; trade shocks; terms of trade shocks;

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